全站搜寻

澳洲山火,南极20°,珠峰长草,人类的气候赌局输了吗?

Buymewise_澳洲大火

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 1364

Warning: preg_match_all(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 684

Warning: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 691

Warning: preg_match_all(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 4 in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 684

Warning: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() in /var/www/vhosts/buymewise.com/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/wp-chinese-conversion/simple_html_dom.php on line 691

据外媒《METRO》2月14日报道,随着气候变暖,南极洲气温首次超过20摄氏度,南极大陆正快速消融,全球海平面将会上升。

就在前一天(2月13日),澳大利亚的大火终于熄灭了。这场大火总共持续了210天,整整7个月。澳大利亚在这场大火中损失惨重,33人死于火灾,12亿野生动物丧生,还有2500多间房屋被摧毁,1170万公顷土地被烧毁。

Buymewise_澳洲大火

其实澳洲大火爆发之后,有很多国家都把这件事情和地球变暖联系在了一起,不过因为证据不足的关系,也没有获得过多的关注,直到珠峰出现了异象。珠穆朗玛峰属于高寒地带,并不适合植物的生长,但是如今该地区却长出了大量的植物,根据相关科研人员的调查显示,喜马拉雅山4000~6000米的范围植被覆蓋率增长了5~15倍。

全球变暖是对人类与自然界的一个主要威胁,诺贝尔经济学奖获得者威廉·诺德豪斯认为人类正在走进“气候赌场”,我们并不知道经济增长所带来的气候变化与生存危机是怎样的,我们能否改变现状并走出来。

本文节选自威廉·诺德豪斯《气候赌场》中的《在气候赌场上的第一次相遇》。

如果你读报,听收音机,或浏览每天的博客,你实际上肯定会遇到关于全球变暖的报道。这里有一个来自不同来源的示例:

最近十年是有记录以来最暖的。

现在最令人尴尬的事实是过去超过十年间没有全球变暖。

在一个世纪之内北极熊可能消失。

全球变暖的主张是一个骗局。

格陵兰的冰盖经历了创纪录的融化。

Buymewise_冰川融化

显而易见,今天全球变暖受到许多关注。而且同样显而易见的是,人们对全球变暖是不是真实的、它是不是重要以及它对人类社会意味着什么,存在分歧。对这些不一致的报道有兴趣的公民可以得出什么结论呢?而且,如果答案是全球变暖是真的,它有多重要呢?在我们所面临的其他问题,例如,持久性失业、飙升的公共债务、低烈度战争以及核扩散中,我们对全球变暖的关注应该排在什么位置?

简单的回答是,全球变暖是对人类与自然界的一个主要威胁,我将用的一个比喻是,我们正在进入“气候赌场”。我用这个比喻的意思是,经济增长正在引起气候与地球系统不合意而危险的变化。这些变化将引起意想不到而且也许是危险的后果。我们正在掷气候骰子,结果将出人意料,且其中有一些可能是危险的。但我们刚刚进入气候赌场,而且也是全面改变并走出来的时候。

全球变暖是我们这个时代一个决定性的问题。作为形成人类与自然在无限未来的轮廓的一种力量,全球变暖应该与暴力冲突和经济萧条等同视之。全球变暖也是一个复杂的问题,它涉及从基础气候科学、生态学和工程学到经济学、政治学和国际关系等学科。

01 到2100年,使全球气温平均提高3 ℃—5 ℃

气候科学是一个动态领域,但它的基本元素已在过去一个世纪中由地球科学家形成,并已有了良好的基础。

全球变暖的终极来源是化石(或者以碳为基础的)燃料。像CO2这样的气体被称为温室气体(GHGs)。它们在大气中积累并长期存留下来。大气中GHGs浓度升高,引起地表与海面变暖。最初的变暖效应通过大气、海洋、冰盖和生物系统中的反馈效应而扩大。影响范围包括温度变化以及极端温度、降雨形式、风的位置和频率、积雪场、河流流量、可用水量及冰盖。这每一种改变都会深刻地影响对气候敏感的生物和人类的活动。

1750年大气中CO2的浓度为280 ppm,而在今天达到390 ppm。模型预测,除非采取减少化石燃料使用的强制性措施,到2100年它们将达到700—900 ppm。根据气候模型,到2100年,使全球气温平均提高3 ℃—5 ℃,此后还会更进一步变暖。因此,除非经济增长有重要的减缓,或者强有力地迅速地遏制CO2排放,我们可以预期大气中会有持续的CO2排放的积累—— 并引起全球变暖,承担所有随之而来的后果。

Buymewise_全球增温

02 全球变暖可能使一些国家受益,而损失主要集中在低收入和热带地区

在分析气候变化导致的影响时,一个核心概念是:一个系统是否受到控制。高收入国家的非农业部门高度受控,使得这些部门至少在未来几十年中能以较低的成本适应气候变化。

但是,许多人类体系与自然系统是未受控或者不可控的,而且未来的气候变化极为脆弱。一些部门或国家可能从气候变化中受益,而在与气候敏感性的物理系统密切相关的地区,很可能有重大的瓦解。潜在的损失可能最主要集中在低收入和热带地区,比如热带非洲、拉丁美洲、沿海国家和印度次大陆。脆弱的系统包括雨养农业、季节性秋雪场、沿海社区、河流径流,以及自然生态系统。对这些地区严重的影响是潜在的。

科学家特别关注地球系统的“临界点”。这些临界点包含了当地球系统跨过门槛时出现突发的或不可逆的变化过程,其中许多影响会在如此大规模的范围内起作用,以至于人类现有的技术无法有效地控制它们。四个重要的全球临界点是大量冰盖(如格陵兰)的迅速融化,类似墨西哥湾暖流(湾流)这样的海洋环流的大规模变化,全球变暖引起进一步变暖过程的反馈效应,以及长期的变暖加剧。这些临界点特别危险,因为一旦临界就不容易扭转。

Buymewise_全球增温_企鹅

03 如何用经济学,减少碳排放

有几种减缓气候变化的潜在战略,但最有希望的是“减轻”或减少CO2以及其他GHGs排放。不幸的是,这种方法代价高昂。研究表明,即使以一种有效的方式推行,为了达到国际气候目标,所花的成本也占全球收入(按今天的水平每年为6000亿—12000亿美元)的1%—2%之间。可以设想发现了一些神奇的技术突破,这些技术突破可以大幅度地降低成本,但专家们并没有看出在不远的未来可以实现。

气候变化经济学是直截了当的。当我们燃烧化石燃料时,我们不经意地把CO2排放到大气中,引起了许多潜在的有害影响。这个过程就是“外部性”,外部性的产生是由于那些产生排放的人并没有为那种特权付费,而且那些受到伤害的人也没有得到补偿。经济学得出的一个主要教训是,不受管制的市场不能有效地解决有害的外部性。因此,不受管制的市场产生了太多的CO2,因为CO2排放的外部危害是零价格。全球变暖是一种特别棘手的外部性,因为它是全球性的,而且会持续到未来很多年。

Buymewise_全球增温

经济学为气候变化政策点出了一个让人头痛的真理:要让任何一项政策有效,就必须提高CO2和其他GHGs排放的市场价格。提高排放的价格可以纠正市场的外部性低定价。通过实施对允许的排放量的受管制的可交易限制(“总量管制与交易”)或者对碳排放征税(“碳税”),可以提高价格。经济史的一个中心经验是激励的力量。为了减缓气候变化,必须对每一个人都进行激励—— 支出千万亿美元的几百万企业和几十亿人—— 以便日益增加用低碳活动代替它们现在化石燃料驱动的消费。最有效的激励是对碳排放收取高额费用。

提高碳排放的价格将达到四个目的。第一,提醒消费者何种产品和劳务属于碳排放量高的,从而更节约地使用。第二,提醒生产者何种投入属于碳排放量高的(例如煤与石油),以及何种属于低的或不用碳的(例如天然气或风力),从而引导企业走向低碳技术。第三,它将为创新者、发明者和投资银行投资、筹集资金和开发提供市场激励,并引进新的低碳产品和流程。最后,碳排放价格将使完成所有这些任务所需要的信息经济化。

Buymewise_全球增温_海豚

04 缓解全球变暖的巨大障碍

一个现实的方法应该认识到,在通向减缓全球变暖有效政策之路上存在严重障碍。尽管气候科学家在理解基本趋势上已经迈出了一大步,但在实施减缓气候变化的政策时仍然有已被证明的困难。

进步缓慢的一个主要原因是民族主义的两难困境,由此引起搭便车行为。没有参与全球减排协议的国家,以其他国家承担的减排成本而搭便车。这种激励引起了“非合作搭便车”的均衡,在这种均衡中,少国家实施了强有力的气候变化政策—— 一种极为类似当前国际政策环境的状态。它们唱高调,但根本没有行动。通过国际贸易关税切断这种不参与的联系,就会有助于减缓搭便车综合征。

此外,存在现代人通过把应对气候变化的成本推给子孙后代的搭便车趋势。代际搭便车的出现,是因为今天减排的大部分收益要在未来的几十年中产生。利益集团通过提供误导性的气候科学与经济成本分析而把水搞浑,扩大了加倍搭便车的困难。反对者强调了反常的和没有解决的科学问题,而忽略了支持基本科学和当前气候变化预测的强有力证据。在美国引进有效政策特别困难,在美国虽然科学的关注日益严峻,意识形态上的反对也更趋强硬。

05 当前的三个举措

相关人士自然想知道,为了减缓全球变暖的进程,我们现在 应该做什么。这是一个涉及公众、经济和技术的复杂过程,我将 强调三个应集中关注的具体事项。

第一,全世界的人都需要理解并承认全球变暖对人类和自然界影响的严重性。科学家应该继续密切研究从科学、生态学、 经济学,到国际关系的每一个方面。人们应该警惕反对者编造的看法,他们会找到千百条理由,等待几十年后再采取适当的举措。

第二,各国应该确立提高CO2和其他温室气体排放价格的政策。这些措施会遭到抵制——正如我们讨厌用有臭味的药一样—— 提高价格是遏制排放、促进低碳技术,从而给我们的地球应对不受约束的变暖威胁打预防针的基本要素。而且,我们要保证行动是全球性的,而不仅仅是国家范围的。虽然政治可能是地方性的,而且对采取强有力举措减缓全球变暖的反对来自民族主义的态度,减缓气候变化要求有合作的全球行动。

第三,显而易见,能源部门的迅速技术变化是转向低碳经济的核心。没有对碳排放的实质性经济惩罚,现在的低碳技术就不能取代化石燃料。开发经济上合理的低碳技术将降低达到我们气候目标的成本。而且,如果其他政策失败了,低碳技术也是达成气候目标的最后补救手段。因此,政府和私人部门应该加强研发低碳、零碳,甚至负碳的技术。

本文摘自

Buymewise_气候赌场

书名:气候赌场
作者: [美]威廉•诺德豪斯
出版社: 中国出版集团 东方出版中心
副标题: 全球变暖的风险、不确定性与经济学
原作名: CLIMATE CASINO
译者: 梁小民
出版年: 2019-9